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[Christian Davenport]

Conflict Consortium Virtual Workshop “Data Feature” with Yousef Munayer

12/8/2015

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For our final 2015 Conflict Consortium Virtual Workshop (CCVW), we focused on Prof. Yousef Munayer's database on Settler Violence in Israel-Palestine from 2000-2014.  The data serve as the primary source for the 2012 report When Settler's Attack (PDF), authored by Munayer.  Joining us for the conversation was Will Moore, Christian Davenport, Devorah Manekin and Javier Osorio.  You can watch the video here.
Munayer and a team of coders have produced an event-like data base by human content analysis of the reports produced by the Palestine Monitoring Group (PMG), a consortium of human rights NGOs distributed throughout the relevant territories, supplemented by news accounts.  The resulting data are rather disaggregated at the longitude-latitude day for individual incidents with information about perpetrators, victims/targets, actions and outcomes. In some ways, it fit the standard who did what to whom, where and when format commonly known as events data, but in others it did not.  Some of the discussion centered on what could be done with the existing data to convert it to the more standard events data format, thereby enhancing its potential use by academic researchers, including increasing the potential for making it readily mergeable with other sub-national datasets that covered the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
 
Guided by the Conflict Consortium’s Standards and Best Practices document on data creation, the session began with a discussion about what was being coded.  Munayer maintains that settler violence constituted a distinct form of political violence undertaken by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in Israel proper, in places under Palestinian authority and in zones that fall under neither’s jurisdiction. 
 
While focused on settler activities, Munayer’s data also includes activities undertaken by the Israeli and Palestinian authorities against diverse targets.  This broadens the focus of the database to be more concerned with conflict and violence in the relevant territory. Rather than adopt the language or label that was more broadly targeted, however, Munayer highlighted one of the forms of violence collected. This differentiates it from databases on the region such as the Levant created by Deborah "Misty" Gerner and Phil Schrodt.  It also differentiates the database from distinct research projects focused on peaceful/cooperative activities.
 
Discussion quickly moved to the network of PMG affiliates: geographically where were they, how does one qualify to be part of the network, are some offices/staffs larger than others, how does PMG information compare against that provided by newspapers, government reports, satellite or crowd sourcing? It was clear in this case that the comparison across sources beyond the PMG is crucial and needs to be done.  This is not only to check for biases but to assess “perspectives” as it is clear that different sources would likely focus on only specific events, for specific audiences and for specific reasons (see Davenport 2007).  The latter point is especially important for in this case information should not be compiled together but it should be viewed as it emerges from individual sources. At present the database did not offer this type of comparison but it could and should be done.


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Another focal point of discussion concerned some interesting maps produced in the report that outlined the complexity in jurisdiction throughout the major.  In different locales, Israel, Palestine and open/contested zones can be found of a dizzying variety.  Highlighted in the report are arrows indicating where attacks generally came from as well as against whom they were directed.  This revealed the importance of geography within the conflict and one is immediately led to wonder (as we did): why specific locales were likely to see highly aggressive settler violence whereas others were much less likely to see such activity?  This is one of the questions that the data were created to prompt and facilitate, but greater attention needs to be paid to assessing the extent of the undercount bias across space, time, event type, actor and target.  Academic researchers could then try to either redesign data collection to address that variation, or to build statistical models of the heterogeneity (see Conrad, Hill & Moore 2014).
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We also discussed the possibility of leveraging some of the automated coding expertise of consortium members to determine whether the data might be collected that way moving forward.  Munayer is very interested in collecting the data in near-real time.
 
Finally, we established that Munayer would like to make the data publicly available, but first needs to properly document the data collection, produce a User's Guide, and “clean up” the somewhat messy format that he, as the producer, can work with, but would not be appropriate for other users.  He shared that it was not a top priority, but something he hopes to do down the line.  We expressed interest in assisting in whatever ways we could. We will provide updates as this progresses.
 
@engagedscholar and @WilHMoo 
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Any World (That I'm Welcome to)...... Anti-Black Behavior, the Desire for Community & the Republic of New Africa

11/13/2015

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I always liked Steely Dan.  Strange place to start a piece concerning black nationalism but stay with me for a second.  There is just something about Steely Dan's calm melodious funk that just does the trick.  I listen to it when editing something I have written.  It doesn't get in the way like some music.  It kind of facilitates.  One song in particular has always resonated with me: Any World (That I'm Welcome to).  You probably know it:

If I had my way
I would move to another lifetime
I'd quit my job
Ride the train through the misty nighttime
I'll be ready when my feet touch ground
Wherever I come down
And if the folks will have me
Then they'll have me

Any world that I'm welcome to
Any world that I'm welcome to
Any world that I'm welcome to

Is better than the one I come from

I can hear your words
When you speak of what you are and have seen
I can see your hand
Reaching out through a shining daydream
Where the days and nights are not the same
Captured happy in a picture frame
Honey I will be there
Yes I'll be there

Any world that I'm welcome to
Any world that I'm welcome to
Any world that I'm welcome to

Is better than the one I come from

I got this thing inside me
That's got to find a place to hide me
I only know I must obey
This feeling I can't explain away
I think I'll go to the park
Watch the children playing
Perhaps I'll find in my head
What my heart is saying
A vision of a child returning
A kingdom where the sky is burning
Honey I will be there
Yes I'll be there

Any world that I'm welcome to
Any world that I'm welcome to
Any world that I'm welcome to

Is better than the one I come from


I always viewed the song as hopeful.  It suggested that if you did not currently have a home and you were not currently being embraced by some community, that it was possible that you might one day.  In some distant future, you will find your peeps, be embraced and walk right on in.

The discrimination directed against African Americans since their coming to the United States has not provided much of welcoming.  Enslavement was simply hell: beatings, torture, rape, forced labor, medical experimentation, and outright killing.  Post enslavement, things were only better in certain ways. Despite being freed from bondage, they were lynched, burnt, sent back into a version of slavery, threatened, rounded up as "vagrants" and worked in prisons, worked to the bone in factories as the lowest on the totem pole, kept out of housing, good schools, good supermarkets and rendered ever fearful that there situation could slip back into some vortex of violence reminiscent of Octavia Butler's Kindred or Haile Germ's Sankofa.  

Given this situation, it makes sense that African Americans would believe in the distant hope of democratization and democracy studied so carefully by Ralph Bunche in "The Political Status of the Negro in the Age of FDR".  Confronted with the realities that this might not sufficiently address all of their problems, it also makes sense that blacks would try to think of some other way to be welcomed.  Indeed, this explains black interest in science fiction like that put forward by the Afrofuturists.  "Any world that I'm welcome to" - even if that world is on another planet or set in the future.  Ever see that Deep Space 9 episode where it was shown that Deep Space 9 existed in the mind of some African American set in the 1950s who
was suffering from a host of discriminatory problems. In his pain, he created the idea of Deep Space 9, which you then were led to wonder about as it was not clear if it really existed or it just existed in the mind of the oppressed black writer. "Any world that I'm welcome to".

Similarly, one could view black nationalism as an attempt to make a world, rather than wait for one to arrive and/or be handed to them.  In a version of a Tribe Called Quest lyric, black nationalists seem to have concluded that "If your state is an ass and your police force is a jerk, leave 'em both alone and create yourself a @." As I am not a rapper, I do not need to finish the line.  You get the point.  

Now, creating that place of welcoming was not an easy thing to do.  Few attempts were put forward but one that I am familiar with concerns the group called the Republic of New Africa (RNA) - the topic of my last book "How Social Movements Die".  The RNA concluded that America was not for them - indeed, they concluded that America was out to kill African Americans.  Rather than go back to Africa like Garvey and many white racists suggested, however, the RNA decided to take a different path.  They were like: we built much of the country and we still live in numerous parts of the deep south in numbers that make it look as if they were the majority. They decided that they should be given/take these states and create their own nation.  

What was this nation and what was this idea of theirs?  Steely Dan illuminates: 


I got this thing inside me
That's got to find a place to hide me

The black nation.  That was their idea.  A place where they would not no fear.  A place where all dreams hindered by the racist America could be fulfilled.  A place of peace and harmony and collective productivity.  It was "Exit" in the Albert Hirschman sense or Escaping the state in the James Scott sense.  


Perhaps I'll find in my head
What my heart is saying


​As we see the burgeoning national and international attention given to the newest version of the African American plight in the US (e.g., "Black Lives Matter") and the piecemeal efforts put forward to address them: e.g., body cameras, commissions of inquiry, talk shows and the like, it is worthwhile to look back some other efforts - ones a bit more critical and creative about both how bad the problem might be but also how dramatic the solution might need to be.  One example is that put forward by the Republic of New Africa.  Below is the government that they proposed as well as, if you read between the lines, why they proposed it.  
More soon.
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A Moral Hazard in Counter-Terror Policy?  (A Conflict Consortium Virtual Workshop Joint)

11/8/2015

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Do restrictions on civil liberties reduce terror attacks?

Earlier this week the CC Virtual Workshop featured Tiberiu Dragu‘s paper, “The Moral Hazard of Terrorism Prevention.” Regrettably, technical issues prevented us from recording the session to YouTube. That aside, we had a fun and interesting discussion.

And why not? Dragu’s provocative answer is “probably not.” More specifically, he argues that once we take into consideration the strategic interaction of government security agents and dissidents, the former will underinvest in detective work (thereby creating demand for their services), and the latter will sometimes plan more attacks than they would have had the government not restricted civil liberties (e.g., speech, association, assembly but also enhancing surveillance and domestic spying capabilities).

To produce these implications Dragu studies a dynamic game theory model involving security agency of a government and a dissident group using terror tactics. The game has two periods: in the first, the group decides whether to execute attacks, and the agency decides how much effort to expend foiling potential plots. As in any game theory model, the trick is to consider how each actor will behave in each period based on its expectations of what will happen over the course of the interaction. This is where the interesting stuff happens as the actors generate expectations about what is likely to have in subsequent periods influencing what they do in the present.

In particular, Dragu compares two circumstances: one in which, following a terror attack in period one, the government does not restrict civil liberties versus another in which, following a terror attack in period one, the government restricts civil liberties. The results of the model indicate that the security agents will work harder to foil plots in the situation with no restrictions than the one with restrictions. In part, this is explained by the fact that without the restrictions these actors have to work a bit harder to figure out what is going on. Higher levels of repression make security force agents lazy, reducing repressive action. Lower levels of repression make security force agents exert more effort, increasing the amount of repressive action that one would see. Further, depending on the values of some of the model’s parameters, the dissidents will plan more attacks. If you know that you are going to be in a situation where it will be harder to meet, plan, train and execute, then you would ramp up your dissident behavior. The paper challenges the conventional wisdom that civil liberties restrictions reduce challenges and advances the agenda that repression needs to be simultaneously disaggregated tactically as well as considered together.

The paper is part of a book length project in which Dragu draws also from his articles published in AJPS (pdf here) and APSR (pdf here). In those works, he expands the discussion to include the incentives of politicians, and the book will engage an array of models that permit him to enrich the sparse models in each of the papers. This should be an important piece.

Terrence Chapman, Ursula Daxecker and Monika Nalepa served as discussants, and raised a number of excellent suggestions ranging from modeling choices to framing and presentation to empirical implications and beyond. Dragu also engaged the group in discussion about some of his ideas for the book length manuscript as well as this individual paper. A good time was had by all.

@WilHMoo & @engagedscholar
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    Analog - The Anti-Blog

    By "Analog" I am referring to the adjective (i.e., relating to or using signals or information represented by a continuously variable physical quantity such as spatial position or voltage) and not the noun (i.e., a person or thing seen as comparable to another) for I wished to give voice to my thoughts which have come to me in a more or less continuous manner but which do so in a way that is not consistent in content or form. Thus you will see short stories, brief thoughts, haikus, low-kus and even a political cartoon or two. 

    Winner of Best Blog Post for 2014 by International Studies Association

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